On August 19, GRANDAR forwarding company Commercial Director Artem Matusevych spoke at the TREND&HEDGE CLUB event on the topic «Black Sea blockade: worse than before».
TREND&HEDGE CLUB is an association of progressive market participants for discussing and developing an understanding of:
✓ the macroeconomic situation in the world and in Ukraine;
✓ the main trends and reasons for changes in grain and oilseed prices;
✓ developing trading strategies (planning, hedging, speculation, financial instruments);
✓ topical issues in the agricultural, financial and export sectors.
Given the suspension of operations at the ports of Greater Odesa due to Russian attacks on port infrastructure and the commercial fleet, Artem Matusevych's presentation «Black Sea blockade: worse than before» is a daily operational reality for market participants – cargo owners, grain traders, buyers, and forwarders. The GRANDAR representative analyzed the current situation at sea and on the Danube, what is happening with prices and tariffs, how to minimize them, and at the end explained what the company can offer on its side.
On July 22, for the first time in 2.5 years of the maritime corridor's operation, not a single vessel entered the ports of Greater Odesa.
Bulk carrier market: corridor collapse
If 222 vessels entered the ports of Greater Odesa in June this year, in July there were already 4-5 vessels per day. After July 22 – zero. Average daily grain shipments fell to 48 thousand tonnes – three times less than the usual pace.
So why now, rather than earlier? Until 2026, the targets of the strikes were port infrastructure – Russia did not attack vessels carrying grain, and the corridor operated regularly from November 2023. In summer 2026, the enemy began deliberately attacking merchant vessels, regardless of their flag. Shipowners responded rationally: they are massively turning their fleets around on approach to Ukrainian ports.
Scale of the consequences for the industry:
Exports of more than 30 million tonnes of grain and oilseeds are under threat – approximately half of the year's harvest. Experts estimate direct losses to the agricultural sector at $1.5–3 billion.
Mining company Ferrexpo suspended maritime shipments after a vessel carrying 55 thousand tonnes of iron ore pellets was damaged.
The Southern Mining and Processing Plant (Southern GOK) partially halted production – a forced step that had been postponed as long as possible, despite years of operations under shelling and energy disruptions.
«Kernel» warned customers: if grain is not removed from storage by September, storage costs may increase by approximately 70% — it will have to be transferred into polymer sleeves.
The vessel Golden Leo, attacked by three missiles on July 19, sank near Odesa. The Odesa Regional Military Administration, together with scientific institutions, is still monitoring the waters for a possible leak.
Container market
The container segment suffered no less, and this is particularly painful because it was precisely the most dynamic direction of the ports of Greater Odesa over the past two years: 2025 – 215 748 TEU versus 129 902 the year before, while the first quarter of 2026 added another 43% – the market was on track to double its annual volume.
On July 22, Maersk suspended service through the Black Sea Fishing Port. It was followed by CMA CGM, MSC, Hapag-Lloyd.
Cargo is being redirected through Constanța by road.
As Artem Matusevych noted, the lines will not return quickly, because three conditions must coincide simultaneously: the readiness of shipowners and feeder operators to restore the service, the readiness of crews to work specifically on this route under risk, and the availability of free feeder tonnage in the region, since vessels that have left the route are not sitting idle and do not return automatically.
Insurance and freight – real figures
War-risk insurance for vessels entering the ports of Greater Odesa currently costs 0.3–0.5% of the vessel's value per call. Policy validity has been reduced to 24 hours (it was 48 hours a month ago), and some underwriters simply refuse to take on new risks – especially in the container segment.
Freight for a large vessel: it was $16.5–17 thousand/day, after the escalation — $37 thousand/day. Per tonne to China: it was $42–43, now about $74.5 excluding the fuel index.
Prices: double pressure on margins
The global benchmark Platts Milling Wheat Marker for Black Sea wheat (September) fell to $225.5/t FOB – the lowest since June 2025. The reason is not the war, but record harvests in several countries around the world at once and weak importer demand.
Within the country, purchase prices for crops fell unevenly:
food wheat — by 16%
feed wheat — by 17%
corn — by 8%
barley — by 14%
rapeseed — by only 5%
Volume gap – and tariff upside
Ukraine expected exports of about 5.4 million tonnes per month in the 2026/27 season.
In August, only about 1.6 million tonnes will be exported by sea and via alternative routes, while the limit of alternative logistics is about 2.9 million tonnes per month. Road and rail transport cannot physically close this gap.
But on August 18, news emerged that partially changes this arithmetic: Moldova Railway (CFM) agreed to a 50% discount on the transit tariff for Ukrainian cargo until the end of 2026. According to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy, 500–800 thousand tonnes of agricultural products can be transported by rail through Moldova per month.
Sulina queue – what has changed recently
How it was arranged since 2022. Before the invasion, vessels entered Izmail and Reni only through Romania's Sulina Canal, because Ukraine's own Bystre Canal had silted up to ~4 m versus the required 6–8. More than a hundred vessels accumulated in the queue approaching Sulina. On May 26, 2022, an agreement was concluded: 40% of capacity for Ukraine, 40% for Romania, 20% for Moldova.
How it was resolved in 2022–2023. Ukraine and Romania agreed on round-the-clock navigation through Sulina and more than doubled the number of Ukrainian pilots – from 16 to 40. The severity of the queue subsided for several years, the quota formally remained in force, but was not strictly applied.
What has changed now. The queue to enter the Sulina Canal has grown to 2–3 days since the beginning of August. During August 7–11, at least 10 vessels passed ahead of the priority queue without appearing on the official lists of the Ukrainian Sea Ports Authority (USPA) – this became the reason for a strict return to the 2022 agreement.
As of August 17, 2026: the priority queue is formed only on the basis of official USPA lists – without being included in the list, a vessel will not pass, no matter how long it waits at the anchorage. The distribution of pilots continues to apply separately: 40% Romania, 40% Ukraine, 20% Moldova.
What does this mean in practice? Timely and correct submission of a vessel to the USPA list is a separate operational task that can actually save several days of waiting.
Forecast: three scenarios for autumn
De-escalation – partial restoration of the Odesa corridor. The fastest way out, but with unpredictable timing.
Protracted parity – mutual blockades continue for months, and the Danube becomes the main working route.
Diplomatic solution – a format similar to the Turkish agreement, realistically no earlier than in several months.
None of the scenarios provides a quick solution. And the harvest needs to be exported now.
GRANDAR's opportunities in Reni
Taking into account everything said above – the route through Romanian territorial waters, the new tariff window through Moldova, Reni's advantage in vessel draft during shallow-water conditions, and an understanding of how to work with USPA lists – GRANDAR continues to develop its own capacities at the port of Reni.
Simultaneous storage of up to 10 000 tonnes of grain
Receiving – 50-70 vehicles per day
Loading onto a vessel – up to 2000 tonnes per day
Loading vessels of 5-7 thousand tonnes with a draft of up to 7 meters – to be confirmed at the time of vessel booking
Hydraulic lift for unloading vehicles, truck scales, grain calibration.